Article ID Journal Published Year Pages File Type
1154677 Statistics & Probability Letters 2006 5 Pages PDF
Abstract
The finite-sample properties of cointegration tests incorporating structural change are derived when applied to independent unit root processes subject to changes in innovation variance. It is shown that decreases in innovation variance can result in severe size distortion, with the extent of spurious rejection dependent upon which series experiences a break and when the break occurs. Mis-specified structural change is therefore shown to result in spurious regression, the very problem cointegration analysis attempts to overcome.
Related Topics
Physical Sciences and Engineering Mathematics Statistics and Probability
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