Use of mixture distributions to deconvolute the behavior of “hits” and controls in high-throughput screening data

The stochastic nature of high-throughput screening (HTS) data indicates that information may be gleaned by applying statistical methods to HTS data. A foundation of parametric statistics is the study and elucidation of population distributions, which can be modeled using modern spreadsheet software. The methods and results described here use fundamental concepts of statistical population distributions analyzed using a spreadsheet to provide tools in a developing armamentarium for extracting information from HTS data. Specific examples using two HTS kinase assays are analyzed. The analyses use normal and gamma distributions, which combine to form mixture distributions. HTS data were found to be described well using such mixture distributions, and deconvolution of the mixtures to the constituent gamma and normal parts provided insight into how the assays performed. In particular, the proportion of hits confirmed was predicted from the original HTS data and used to assess screening assay performance. The analyses also provide a method for determining how hit thresholds—values used to separate active from inactive compounds—affect the proportion of compounds verified as active and how the threshold can be chosen to optimize the selection process.