Modelling the Probability of Growth and Aflatoxin B1 Production of Aspergillus Flavus under Changing Temperature Conditions in Pistachio Nuts

The aim of this work was to use probability models for the prediction of growth and aflatoxin production by Aspergillus flavus as a strategy to mitigate the aflatoxin presence in pistachio nuts during postharvest. Logistic models, with temperature and time as explanatory variables, were fitted to the probability of growth and aflatoxin B1 (AFB1) production under constant temperature levels, afterwards they were used to predict probabilities under non-isothermal scenarios. The models obtained showed levels of concordance from 80 to 100% in most of the cases. Moreover, the presence of AFB1 in pistachio nuts could be correctly predicted through AFB1 models developed in agar medium or through growth models in pistachio nuts. These findings can support decision making, at transport and storage level, and could be used by producers and processors to predict the time for AFB1 production by A. flavus in pistachio nuts in postharvest.