Probabilistic analysis of pipelines with corrosion defects by using FITNET FFS procedure

A probabilistic method based on the corrosion module of the FITNET FFS procedure is presented to perform the structural integrity analysis for pipelines. The comparison of the failure pressure determined by both deterministic and probabilistic methods shows that even for a high safety factor, the deterministic method may predict nonconservative results. FITNET FFS procedure predicts a similar probability to that given by the Shell-92 model. The sensitivity analysis of both the uncertainty of the variables and the underlying model shows that the corrosion depth has the most significant contribution to the pipeline failure at an inspection interval of 8 years.

Research highlights► The study shows that even for a high safety factor, the deterministic method may predict nonconservative results. ► FITNET FFS procedure predicts a similar probability to that given by the Shell-92 model. ► The corrosion defect depth has the most significant contribution to the pipeline failure at an inspection interval of 8 years.