A Predictive Analysis of China's Energy Security Based on Supply Chain Theory

China's energy dependence on energy supply chain have been increasing rapidly in recent years. The long-term energy supply plays an important role to guarantee the energy security. Therefore, our emphasis placed on energy supply chain predictive analysis and security evaluation in China. In this study, a linked MARKAL-CGE-EIA model system is proposed to simulate the macro-level energy technology, macro-level economy and environmental impacts of China. The CGE module is used to produce a multi-sector simulation of economic growth and industrial structure change. A MARKAL module is used to analyze particular technologies within the energy system, given estimates of associated energy demand and the relative prices of fuel and other inputs. A third module of Environmental Impact is applied to make an analysis of pollutant emissions. The energy indicators are used to perform an assessment of the dynamic behavior and security trends of a national energy system's trajectory from 2000 to 2050. The results of our study will enable energy policy planners to understand these inter-linkages by addressing energy early-warming indicators and scenarios to the aggregate industrial sectors, the energy technology details, and environmental impacts.