Simulation-based experimental design and statistical modeling for lead time quotation

•A metamodeling approach is developed to provide lead time quotes in real time.•The approach is able to quote tighter lead time with desired customer service level.•Metamodels are built relating the flow time distribution to shop status factors.•An experimental design method is developed for the space of shop status factors.•It is the first attempt to thoroughly investigate all shop status factors’ impacts.

In a produce-to-order environment, it is of substantial interest to be able to quote a tight and reliable lead time for a new job (or order) upon its arrival to a manufacturing system. This work developed a simulation-based statistical approach to provide responsive and high-quality prediction of a new job's flow time through the system, which renders the capability of accurately quoting lead times in real time. The approach integrates analytical queueing analysis, design of experiments, and statistical modeling to quantify the dependence of a new job's flow time distribution upon the shop status “seen” by that job. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first attempt to design simulation experiments in the space spanned by a complete set of shop status factors for the thorough investigation of the possible impacts those factors may have on the distribution of a new job's flow time. The method has been applied on a scaled-down semiconductor manufacturing system, and the quality of the quoted lead time has been evaluated based on a large and well-designed validation data set in terms of the six commonly used performance criteria.