Energy System Design to Maximize Net Energy Production Considering Uncertainty in Scale-up: A Case Study in Artificial Photosynthesis

Increasing energy demands coupled with decreasing resources and increased concerns about the long-term impacts of energy production are driving the development and full-scale implementation of new energy production systems. In general, several considerations must be addressed to move technology from the prototype phase to complete deployment, while ensuring adequate return on investment. These considerations include: availability of capable manufacturing processes, appropriate material selection, and supply chain resiliency. For new energy production systems, it is also important to evaluate net energy production and life cycle impacts. There is significant uncertainty associated with each of these considerations. This paper proposes a framework for maximizing net energy production in full-scale systems considering these uncertainties. The utility of the framework is demonstrated through a case study focused on an analysis of prototyping and scale-up of artificial photosynthesis as a solar-fuel generator.