Dynamic non-probabilistic reliability evaluation and service life prediction for arch dams considering time-varying effects

The service reliability of arch dams is related to the material characteristics and load. According to statistical data regarding different material characteristics and load types, probability-based models and methods are generally used to calculate and assess the service reliability of arch dams. However, it is difficult to obtain these statistical data. In this study, we introduce the non-probabilistic reliability (N-PR) method into service reliability evaluations for arch dams. This method only requires the intervals for uncertain parameters and not the probability distributions. The dynamic N-PR calculation model for an arch dam element is built according to the time-varying characteristics of the material parameters and load. By considering the random failure of an initial element, we propose an approach that searches for the main failure modes of arch dams and a method for calculating the dynamic N-PR of the arch dam system. We evaluated the dynamic N-PR for an actual arch dam and forecasted its normal service life.