Assessment of the commercial viability of selected options for on-orbit servicing (OOS)

•We develop a parametric model to estimate the revenue stream of a Comsat.•The revenue stream is used to determine the benefit to an operator of repairing a satellite.•The benefit is compared to the satellite cost to calculate the maximum cost of servicing.•This cost is compared to known costs to determine which servicing missions are viable.

The aim of this paper is to determine the commercial viability of on-orbit servicing of communications satellites in geostationary orbit. Previous studies have shown the technical feasibility of servicing as well as the financial viability of some missions, in particular refuelling, therefore this paper analyses these repair missions and life extension missions. A simple parametric model for simulating communications satellite revenue streams is developed and the results are used to determine the maximum possible revenue for a servicing satellite operator. From this, the maximum cost of the servicing satellite as a proportion of the cost of the communications satellite is determined under three profit scenarios representing zero profit, acceptable profit to an operator in a mature industry and acceptable profit to an operator in an emerging industry. The results show that while servicing is financially viable (zero profit scenario), those missions which result in an increase in Comsat life which is a multiple of the mission duration are more likely to be commercially viable. Refuelling is therefore viable in all cases but life extension in most cases is only marginally viable. Repair missions to satellites which are partially operable are also unlikely to deliver sufficient value to justify carrying out servicing. Also the timing of a servicing mission in relation to the expected remaining life expectancy is a major factor in determining the mission׳s viability.