Longitude-dependent effects of fragmentation events in the geosynchronous orbit regime

•Longitude-dependent debris congestion resulting from GEO fragmentations is evaluated.•Simulated rocket body explosions and collisions over various longitudes are assessed.•Bi-annual congestion spikes occur at longitudinal extents of parent libration motion.•Harmonic oscillator model synthesized to forecast fragment focusing to first-order.

The effects of on-orbit fragmentation events on localized debris congestion in each of the longitude slots of the geosynchronous orbit (GEO) regime are evaluated by simulating explosions and collisions of uncontrolled rocket bodies in multiple orbit configurations, including libration about one or both of the gravitational wells located at 75°E and 105°W. Fragmentation distributions are generated with the NASA Standard Breakup Model, which samples fragment area-to-mass ratio and delta-velocity as a function of effective diameter. Simulation results indicate that the long-term severity and consequence of a GEO fragmentation event is strongly dependent upon parent body longitude at the epoch of fragmentation, which can spawn bi-annual “fragment storms” in high-risk longitude slots, driven by lower-energy fragments that have been captured and have started librating around the nearby gravitational well.