Local debris congestion in the geosynchronous environment with population augmentation

•Probability density functions created to model operational orbits of GEO satellites.•Orbit model used to study GEO debris congestion in business-as-usual launch traffic.•With current 80% re-orbit rate, congestion at gravity wells will double in 50 years.

Forecasting of localized debris congestion in the geostationary (GEO) regime is performed to investigate how frequently near-miss events occur for each of the longitude slots in the GEO ring. The present-day resident space object (RSO) population at GEO is propagated forward in time to determine current debris congestion conditions, and new probability density functions that describe where GEO satellites are inserted into operational orbits are harnessed to assess longitude-dependent congestion in “business-as-usual” launch traffic, with and without re-orbiting at end-of-life. Congestion forecasting for a 50-year period is presented to illustrate the need for appropriately executed mitigation measures in the GEO ring. Results indicate that localized debris congestion will double within 50 years under current 80% re-orbiting success rates.