Nuclear fragmentation/dispersion modeling and simulation of hazardous near-Earth objects

This paper presents the development of simulation tools designed to be implemented as part of the mission design procedure for nuclear fragmentation and dispersion of a near-Earth object (NEO). A description of the methods used will be presented, followed by a discussion of the advanced GPU (Graphics Processing Unit) computing technology applied to accelerate computation. Preliminary results of a fragmented NEO dispersion scenario emphasize global parameter search methods for use in engineering mission analysis. A model of the NEO fragmentation process is presented for a subsurface nuclear explosion and penetrating contact burst. We conduct Monte Carlo simulation to establish a mean response of the target NEO to the fragmentation process. Resulting coherent masses are propagated through a model of solar system dynamics until the predetermined date of impact. On some orbits, the impacting mass can be reduced to lower than 0.1% of the NEO mass.

► We developed software and hardware tools to aid deflection mission design. ► Simulation is a key component to determining the needs for an effective mission. ► Improvements to simulation speed allow for calculations including uncertainty.