Will the US remain the real leader of human space exploration? A comparative assessment of space exploration policies

Human space exploration is at a turning point which should find its outcome during the coming decade: Shuttle is being retired, ISS will be exploited up to 2020 minimum. Today the US exploration plans are sucked down into political battles, Europe and Japan are nearly nowhere, Russia's plans are hazy, China's ambitions are clear and implemented, and new actors such as India are raising their profile. In this uncertain environment, the question might be asked: who will be the leaders of human space exploration in 10–15 years from now?The assumption of the paper is that some key enabling factors are essential for a country to play a substantial role in human space exploration:–There should be some long term political stability or continuity–The domain should be high in the political agenda of the country's decision makers–The global budget environment of the country should be positive–Space should not be too much competed by other budget “catchers”The paper will propose a tentative comparison of the main space faring countries plans, ambitions and likely positioning, for human space exploration. Starting from the today situation and recent past evolutions, we will try to establish future trends for these key factors, and through that to identify which countries might be the most dynamically engaged in human space exploration.

► Analysis of human space exploration dynamics in USA, Russia, China, Europe, Japan and India. ► USA has the largest civil space budget, but is no longer trusted as a leader due to its evasiveness. ► Europe and Japan are in a wait and see mode, human space exploration is not a real priority. ► Russia is wealthy, but the priorities are more on space for the benefit of the nation's development. ► China has high ambitions in space and human space exploration, and the resources to realise.