Modelling of the optical observations of a geosynchronous fragmentation event

A study of the evolution and optical detectability of a fragmentation debris cloud in geosynchronous orbit has been carried out. The 1998 NASA breakup model has been used to generate orbit data for 95 fragments larger than 10 cm size from a 1000 kg satellite. The orbital evolution of these fragments is studied using a precision numerical propagator, employing a high-fidelity force model. Although the fragments rapidly disperse throughout the geostationary arc, they remain localised in right ascension of ascending node and inclination, and are driven along a narrow inertial corridor by luni-solar perturbations. The ESA PROOF software is used to study the detectability of the fragments using a 1- and 0.5-m telescope design. The 1-m telescope can detect 82% of the fragments (down to 13 cm in size) whilst the 0.5-m telescope can detect 39% of the fragments (down to 30 cm size). Due to the large along-track spread of the fragments, a time limit of 1-month post-breakup can be established for a space surveillance system to catalogue the breakup fragments. After this time the angular separation is such that the fragments disperse into the background population, and are no longer distinguishable as originating from a common breakup event.