Influence of sea level rise on saline water intrusion in the Yangtze River Estuary, China

The Yangtze River Estuary (YRE) is vulnerable to the accelerated sea level rise (SLR). In this study, a three-dimensional hydrodynamic and salinity transport model, with a high resolution unstructured mesh and spatially varying bottom roughness, is applied to quantify the influences of SLR on saline water intrusion in the YRE. The model has well been validated through observation data of tidal level, flow velocity and direction, and salinity. The performances of four scenarios of the present sea level (PSL) as well as 0.5, 1 and 2 m SLR reveal that (1) the isohaline shifts upstream nonlinearly in the YRE with SLR, and non-uniform in the spatial distribution under the same SLR. The isohalines of 1, 2 and 5 psu near the north bank of the South Branch intrude farther upstream than those near the south bank, and the upstream advance distance of 0.45 psu isohaline is much longer than those of 1, 2 and 5 psu isohalines under the same SLR. (2) The spillover of saline water from the North Branch into the South Branch intensifies with SLR, while the salinity in the lower reach of the North Branch is reduced due to increased low salinity flow from the South Branch and the North Channel caused by SLR. (3) The durations of undrinkable water increase at four reservoirs with SLR, and four reservoirs cannot intake raw drinking-water in the dry season in the 2 m SLR scenario. (4) A regression analysis obtains a quantitative quadratic expression between salinity and SLR. Finally, the effects of the operation of the Three Gorges Reservoir and more SLR scenarios on the salinity, and two different approaches for SLR simulations are also discussed.