What drives environmental conflicts in coastal areas? An econometric approach

•Econometric model for studying drivers of environmental conflicts in coastal areas.•Tool to support coastal managers in the analysis and assessment of policies.•Setup of various scenarios of demographic, economic and climatic changes.•Demographic pressure and climatic risks are key factors driving conflicts.

Competing interests in land-use change trigger conflicts between institutional bodies, local residents, land developers and environmental NGOs. This is even more dramatic in fragile areas such as coastal regions, which are characterized by intense human and environmental activity. Moreover, increasing urban expansion around metropolitan areas often disregards environmentally sensitive areas and is countered by both institutional response and regulation. This results in a conflicting coastal environment characterized by minimal urban planning, sprawl, pollution due to industrial expansion, climate change and land use competition between residential and recreational development and cultural heritage conservation interests.We present an econometric analysis of environmental resource management in coastal metropolitan areas. Surprisingly, there is only a small amount of literature on a quantitative approach to environmental conflicts and land-use in coastal areas. This paper contributes to the current state of knowledge by suggesting an econometric model which encompasses the main relationships between land-use, population dynamics and economic development.Not only are environmental risks and sustainability taken into account in the model equations, but variables related to human mobility, employment, land for housing, agriculture and land in pristine state are also considered. These key indicators are thought to be endogenous to the system and to predict the probability of conflict occurrence. Furthermore, likely conflict-types are estimated under various simulated scenarios. Uniquely, we utilize simultaneous equation modeling where both human and environmental pressures combine in driving conflicts. The empirical results show that environmental sustainability and housing land use are key determinants in mitigating conflicts in areas experiencing demographic, economic and climatic pressures.