Coastal congestion: Simulating port expansion and land use change under zero-sum conditions

•Displacement effects associated with land use development in a congested coastal area.•Land use change generated by the proposed expansion of the port of Haifa is simulated.•Non-residential port activities ultimately displace residential land use in wider area.•Zero-sum effects of land use change under conditions of congestion are highlighted.•Implications of balancing limited coastal resources amongst stakeholders are stressed.

This paper examines the displacement effects associated with new land use development in a congested coastal area. A land use micro-simulation model (UrbanSim) and statistical estimation are used to identify the expected future land use impacts arising from the proposed expansion of the Port of Haifa. Maximum and minimum development scenarios are simulated and compared to baseline (business-as-usual) conditions. Simulation outputs refer to future population, employment, residential and non-residential construction for the city of Haifa and its metropolitan area untill the year 2038. A key finding relates to the spatial substitution effects of additional non-residential floor space on residential development throughout the Haifa region. This highlights the zero sum effects of land use change under conditions of congestion. The challenge of efficiently using limited land use resources and balancing development across many competing uses and stakeholders, is stressed.