Oil spill forecast model based on uncertainty analysis: A case study of Dalian Oil Spill

In this article an oil spill forecast model based on uncertainty analysis (OSMUA) is developed by incorporating HSY algorithm into the traditional Lagrangian oil spill model. While the traditional model focuses on simulating the trajectory of oil spill, the uncertainty-based model can present the spatial distribution of model parameters so that the reliability of the simulation could be improved.To assess the effectiveness of OSMUA, the Dalian Oil Spill accident on 16 July, 2010 is chosen as a case. By applying HSY in the calibration of oil spill parameters and then analyzing the uncertainty of the parameters, OSMUA gets reasonable simulation result, from which the most likely amount of oil spill in this accident is also determined.

► An oil spill forecast model based on uncertainty analysis (OSMUA) is developed. ► OSMUA incorporates HSY algorithm into Lagrangian oil spill model. ► OSMUA presents the distribution of parameters rather than optimize a single value. ► The case study of Dalian Oil Spill shows OSMUA improves the simulation reliability.