Influence of the GZ calculation method on parametric roll prediction

Parametrically excited roll response in a container ship sailing in irregular head sea has been studied. Short-term predictions for roll have been made for a ship at a constant forward speed based on different hydrodynamic roll descriptions.The first order reliability method (FORM) has been used to obtain the probability that the roll motion will exceed a given limiting angle. The results have been compared to the results by a Monte Carlo simulation. Using FORM the computational time is greatly reduced as compared to direct simulations, still retaining the probability of failure of the correct order of magnitude. Calculations have been made for different sea states and operational conditions leading to parametric roll resonance and for relevant maximum pre-defined roll angles. The outcome of this comparative study could be useful for the decisions in an early design phase or for application to on-board decision support systems, where a computationally efficient method is needed in order to have an operationally feasible time frame.