Evaluation and update of Norwegian and Danish oil production forecasts and implications for Swedish oil import

•Update of long-term forecasts for Norwegian and Danish oil production.•Short-term evaluation of earlier forecasts by academic groups and national agencies.•Assessment of future oil import developments for Sweden.•Discussion of the suitability of field-by-field models for predictive forecasting.

This paper presents an updated historic oil production analysis as well as an updated future oil production forecast for Norway and Denmark. Previous forecasts conducted by academic and official agencies using a variety of methodologies are contrasted and their accuracy examined. The bottom-up field-by-field methodology is found to be precise in the short-term, as it deviates by less than 1% from actual production.The impact of declining oil production in the North Sea on Sweden is explored as a case study. The historic and future trends regarding Swedish oil imports are presented and their vulnerability assessed using the Herfindahl–Hirschman index.