Non-grain fuel ethanol expansion and its effects on food security: A computable general equilibrium analysis for China

•A CGE (computable general equilibrium) model and potential land scenarios are constructed for analysis.•Without potential land, non-grain fuel ethanol expansion is not conducive to food security.•Even with potential land, food prices will increase and affect household's food consumption.•Urban household is more vulnerable to non-grain fuel ethanol expansion than rural household.

Concerning food security, China has launched non-grain fuel ethanol projects with potential land. However, there are concerns and facts, such as feedstock price rise, regarding its implications on quantity of food supply and food price. The study aims to better understand the impacts of expanding non-grain fuel ethanol on food price, supply and consumption using a CGE (computable general equilibrium) model. The investigation is divided into two scenarios, no supply of potential land and supply of potential land. The results show that: an increase in the fuel ethanol production raises food prices under both scenarios; and food supply and consumption can be ensured when there is a supply of potential land. Also, the simulated results predict adequate and quality potential land supply is one of the most important aspects to ensure food security in China. In addition, financial and trade policy implications are proposed.