Modelling HGV freight transport energy demand in Ireland and the impacts of the property construction bubble

Freight transport is both significant and fast growing in terms of energy use but there are few papers that focus on modelling future freight transport energy use. This paper addresses this knowledge gap, focussing on Ireland, which is an interesting case study because it has witnessed a significant increase in energy use for freight from 1990 to 2007 followed by a dramatic drop in the following two years due to the property construction bubble bursting and economic recession. The paper focuses on HGV freight only due to gaps in LGV data and the focus on construction activity. We disaggregate freight activity (tkm) in terms of three commodity groupings (reflecting sectoral activity) and weight class, and estimate historical HGV energy demand by commodity group using specific energy consumption (MJ/tkm) by weight class. We then determine the most significant economic driver behind the activity trends for each commodity grouping and the associated elasticity of demand. Finally we use these elasticities along with national economic forecasts to project future HGV activity and energy for each commodity grouping. Comparing the approach presented with an aggregated GDP-tkm-MJ approach, it is clear from the results that the disaggregated approach captures better the trend in the period 2008–2010.

► Bottom-up model of past and future heavy goods vehicle (HGV) energy demand in Ireland. ► Commodity-based approach identifies effect of building boom and burst bubble on freight transport energy demand. ► HGV energy demand associated with the construction industry declined steeply post-2008, following strong growth. ► Disaggregate forecast capture the 2008–2011 trend better than typical aggregate GDP-tkm-MJ approach.