| Article ID | Journal | Published Year | Pages | File Type |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1733348 | Energy | 2012 | 10 Pages |
China has an ambitious target of developing 30 GW offshore wind energy by 2020. A spatially continuous resource economic and tropical cyclone risk model is built using Geographic Information System (GIS) to evaluate the feasibility of the target from both national and provincial level. The influence of spatial constraints and tropical cyclone risk on offshore wind potential and its associated marginal levelised production costs are identified by cost–supply curves derived from the model. It is concluded that spatial constraints and tropical cyclone risk increase the marginal levelised production costs for achieving the national target by 7 €/MWh and 34 €/MWh respectively. The implications of technological progress are further investigated, which suggests the marginal levelised production costs will be in the range of 77–87 €/MWh as better tropical cyclone-resistant turbines are developed. Comparing this figure with actual winning bids from current public tender procedure, it implies that only 40–70% of the national target can be achieved even under aggressive progresses of turbine technologies in the near future. A stable provincial based feed-in-tariff system for offshore wind energy and long-term policies contributing for technological learning need to be launched in order to make the ambitious plan into reality.
► An offshore cost and potential model is built with special attention to tropical cyclones. ► Potential, risk included costs and constraints are mapped for the Chinese offshore area. ► The sensitivity analyses of technological progress and pricing mechanism on the 30 GW target are conducted. ► It is insufficient to achieve both national and provincial targets by 2020 under current pricing mechanism. ► Provincial based FIT can be set based on the calculated marginal levelised production costs.
