Cellulosic biofuels: Expert views on prospects for advancement

In this paper we structure, obtain and analyze results of an expert elicitation on the relationship between U. S. government Research & Development funding and the likelihood of achieving advances in cellulosic biofuel technologies. While there was disagreement among the experts on each of the technologies, the patterns of disagreement suggest several distinct strategies. Selective Thermal Processing appears to be the most promising path, with the main question being how much funding is required to achieve success. Thus, a staged investment in this path looks promising. With respect to gasification, there remains fundamental disagreement over whether success is possible even at higher funding levels. Thus, basic research into the viability of the path makes sense. The Hydrolysis path induced the widest range of responses from the experts, indicating there may be value in collecting more information on this technology.