Uncertainties in the design and operation of distributed energy resources: The case of micro-CHP systems

Large-scale diffusion of distributed energy resources (DERs) will have a profound impact on electricity infrastructure functioning: it will bring radical changes to the traditional model of generation and supply as well as to the business model of the energy industry. DERs comprise distributed power generators, distributed energy storages and controllable loads. There are, however, many uncertainties that influence the design and operation of DERs. This paper clarifies these uncertainties by proposing and applying a comprehensive framework for uncertainty analysis. We thereby adopt an integrated approach that considers not only the technical, but also the economic and institutional uncertainties. A delineation of the work is a focus on residential DERs and on micro-CHP systems specifically. After the proposed framework for uncertainty analysis is explained the uncertainties pertaining to the design and operation of residential DERs and micro-CHP systems are identified. In a case study system a selection of the uncertainties are quantitatively analysed. The case study system consists of a household that intelligently applies a micro-CHP unit in conjunction with energy storages and that interacts with its energy supplier. With a sensitivity analysis of the system model the salient impacts of the uncertainties on system behaviour and performance are enunciated.