Hydrocarbon production forecast for committed assets in the shallow water Outer Continental Shelf of the Gulf of Mexico

In 2007, the federal waters of the Gulf of Mexico averaged daily production of 1.3 million barrels of oil and 7.6 billion cubic feet of natural gas. The majority of oil is produced from deepwater fields in water depth greater than 1000 ft, while most gas production is extracted from the shelf. The Outer Continental Shelf is a mature province with over 3800 fixed structures and 6500 producing wells connected into an integrated pipeline network more than 30,000 miles in length. The purpose of this paper is to develop a methodology to forecast oil and gas production in the shallow water Gulf of Mexico. Structures are categorized according to age and production characteristics, and forecast procedures for each asset class are described and illustrated. The methodology is implemented using the inventory of committed assets circa December 2006. The expected amount of hydrocarbon production arising from the inventory of committed assets under stable reservoir and investment conditions is estimated to be 1056 MMbbl oil and 13.3 Tcf gas valued between $85 and 150 billion. The results of generalized regression models are presented with a discussion of the limitations of analysis.