ADMIRE-REBUS: modeling the European market for renewable electricity

ADMIRE REBUS is a dynamic simulation model of the international market for renewable electricity. It pays explicit attention to trade barriers, discriminative support policies, risks, and other imperfections inherent in a market in transition. The model matches national supply curves (based on costs and potentials) with policy-based demand curves so as to take into account the discriminative characteristics of policies, where appropriate, and the ability of producers to choose whether they produce for the domestic market or whether they wish to trade their production. Because of the different levels of national support schemes, different submarkets emerge with local equilibrium prices. The paper describes the way in which the model simulates the policy-induced renewable electricity market, and shows results concerning the contribution of several important technologies in five scenarios that differ with regard to assumed ambition level, trade barriers, and timing of EU member states' policies on renewable electricity. Within the chosen scenarios, the model shows wind offshore to be the most sensitive technology with regard to the policy environment.