Influence factors for scenario analysis for new environmental technologies – the case for biopolymer technology

New environmental technologies pose significant uncertainties because a clear prediction of their future development and application possibilities cannot be made. In order to include different future prospects in ‘firms’ and ‘policy-makers’ planning processes, scenario analysis constitutes a very suitable method. The characterization of important influence factors is central for informative results of an analysis as they define the nature and intensity of impacts of a technology's environment. This paper aims at specifying a classification of influence factors for new technology scenario analysis by including major insights from diffusion theory. Subsequently, an exemplary application for biopolymer technology is given.