Can Bolivia keep its role as a major natural gas exporter in South America?

•A new methodology to construct natural gas supply curves is presented.•Cash-flow models were elaborated to assess the impact of the fiscal regime.•Current 3P reserves are projected to be committed by 2020.•20 US$ billion will be required to develop the production projected up to 2030.

Natural gas is key to physical market integration in South America and Bolivian exports to Brazil and Argentina plays a major role in it. This study evaluates if Bolivia would be able to attend domestic and international natural gas demand up to 2030. To capture the major uncertainties related to natural gas demand and production a range of scenarios is produced, detailing domestic and export markets and supply curves according to Bolivian reserves. Findings show that Bolivian domestic natural gas market would increase at an average annual rate of 6.6% up to 2030. Exports would still account for 74% of Bolivia’s supply in 2030. To supply domestic and international markets, Bolivia would possibly require more than its current proven plus probable plus possible reserves. Argentina may be a game changer in the South American natural gas market. Under a self-sufficient scenario, Argentina would cut off Bolivian natural gas imports after 2022. Yet chances are that Argentina may not be able to achieve self-sufficiency.