Coupling numerical simulation and machine learning to model shale gas production at different time resolutions

A history-matched Marcellus shale gas pad with six horizontal laterals and 169 clusters of hydraulic fracture is used as a base case for shale proxy model development. Additionally, several realizations are defined in order to capture the uncertainties inherent in the shale simulation model. The proxy model is validated using a blind simulation run that is not used during the model development process. The developed shale proxy model re-generates the simulation results for methane production for 169 clusters hydraulic fracture in a second with high accuracy (<15% error), thus making a comprehensive analysis of production from shale a practical and feasible option. Moreover, it can be used as an assisted history-matching tool, since it has the capability to scrutinize the solution space and produce the model response to the uncertainty changes very fast.