Long-term dynamics of high area-to-mass ratio objects in high-Earth orbit

•Presented new non-singular formulation of first-order averaging, explicitly given in the Milankovitch elements.•Exposed the Saros resonance which leads to complex evolutionary behaviors when the perturbing forces act in concert.•Identified systematic structure in inclination-ascending node phase space leading to a generalization of the Laplace plane.

The dynamics of high area-to-mass ratio (HAMR) objects has been studied extensively since the discovery of this debris population in near GEO orbits. A sound understanding of their nature, orbital evolution, and possible origin is critical for space situational awareness. In this paper, a new averaged formulation of HAMR object orbit evolution that accounts for solar radiation pressure, Earth oblateness, and lunisolar perturbations is explored. The first-order averaged model, explicitly given in terms of the Milankovitch orbital elements, is several hundred times faster to numerically integrate than the non-averaged counterpart, and provides a very accurate description of the long-term behavior. This model is derived and presented along with comparisons with explicit long-term numerical integrations of HAMR objects in GEO. The dynamical configuration of the Earth–Moon–Sun system was found to have a significant resonance effect with HAMR objects leading to complex evolutionary behavior. The properties of this resonant population may serve as important constraints for models of HAMR debris origin and evolution. A systematic structure associated with their distribution in inclination and ascending node phase space is identified. Given that these objects are difficult to target and correlate, this has many implications for the space surveillance community and will allow observers to implement better search strategies for this class of debris.