Uncertainties in radiation flow experiments

Although the fundamental physics behind radiation and matter flow is understood, many uncertainties remain in the exact behavior of macroscopic fluids in systems ranging from pure turbulence to coupled radiation hydrodynamics. Laboratory experiments play an important role in studying this physics to allow scientists to test their macroscopic models of these phenomena. However, because the fundamental physics is well understood, precision experiments are required to validate existing codes already tested by a suite of analytic, manufactured and convergence solutions. To conduct such high-precision experiments requires a detailed understanding of the experimental errors and the nature of their uncertainties on the observed diagnostics. In this paper, we study the uncertainties plaguing many radiation-flow experiments, focusing on those using a hohlraum (dynamic or laser-driven) source and a foam-density target. This study focuses on the effect these uncertainties have on the breakout time of the radiation front. We find that, even if the errors in the initial conditions and numerical methods are Gaussian, the errors in the breakout time are asymmetric, leading to a systematic bias in the observed data. We must understand these systematics to produce the high-precision experimental results needed to study this physics.