Ice table depth variability near small rocks at the Phoenix landing site, Mars: A pre-landing assessment

We combine thermal simulations of ground ice stability near small rocks with extrapolations of the abundance of rocks at the Phoenix landing site based on HiRISE rock counts to estimate the degree of ice table depth variability within the 3.8 m2 workspace that can be excavated during the mission. Detailed predictions of this kind are important both to test current ground-ice theory and to optimize soil investigations after landing. We find that Phoenix will very likely have access to at least one rock in the diameter range 5 cm to 1 m. Our simulations, which assume the ice to be in diffusive equilibrium with atmospheric water vapor, indicate that all rocks in this size range are associated with an annulus of deep ice-free soil. Ice table depth variability of 1–5 cm is very likely at the landing site due to the presence of small rocks. Further, there are scenarios in which Phoenix might exploit the presence of individual large rocks and/or the arrangement of small rocks to sample soils at depths >10 cm below the average depth predicted from orbit (∼4 cm). Scale analysis to constrain uncertainties in simulation results indicates that estimates of maximum depths may be somewhat conservative and that ice table depressions associated with individual rocks could be deeper and laterally more extended than indicated by formal predictions by mm to cm.