THEMIS observations and riometry: A data comparison with a view to proxy and prediction

•Associations between magnetotail electron flux and auroral absorption (AA).•Significant predictability for dayside and nightside events.•Dependence of flux on position in magnetotail.•Location of AA substorm source in near-Earth magnetotail.

A comparison has been made between radio absorption events observed by riometer at selected times of day and bursts of electrons observed in the midnight sector by THEMIS satellites. The correlation is found to be good for absorption in the noon and midnight sectors but poor around dawn and dusk. For noon and midnight the absorption can be estimated from the THEMIS electron flux to better than a factor of 2 in most cases. In the noon sector the absorption follows the THEMIS event by about 30 min on average (though with considerable variation from case to case), but by night the absorption precedes the electron flux by about 8 min on average. Thus, the flux at THEMIS can be predicted from the absorption in the night sector, the accuracy being better than a factor of 3 in most cases. The flux observed also depends on the location of the satellite, reducing with increasing distance down the tail. It is estimated that the source of the tail events observed in this study was at about 6Re, and comparisons are made with the established general pattern of the substorm in auroral absorption.