Modelling the probability of ionospheric irregularity occurrence over African low latitude region

This study presents models of geomagnetically quiet time probability of occurrence of ionospheric irregularities over the African low latitude region. GNSS-derived ionospheric total electron content data from Mbarara, Uganda (0.60°S, 30.74°E, geographic, 10.22°S, magnetic) and Libreville, Gabon (0.35°N, 9.68°E, geographic, 8.05°S, magnetic) during the period 2001-2012 were used. First, we established the rate of change of total electron content index (ROTI) value associated with background ionospheric irregularity over the region. This was done by analysing GNSS carrier-phases at L-band frequencies L1 and L2 with the aim of identifying cycle slip events associated with ionospheric irregularities. We identified at both stations a total of 699 events of cycle slips. The corresponding median ROTI value at the epochs of the cycle slip events was 0.54 TECU/min. The probability of occurrence of ionospheric irregularities associated with ROTI≥0.5TECU/min was then modelled by fitting cubic B-splines to the data. The aspects the model captured included diurnal, seasonal, and solar flux dependence patterns of the probability of occurrence of ionospheric irregularities. The model developed over Mbarara was validated with data over Mt. Baker, Uganda (0.35°N, 29.90°E, geographic, 9.25°S, magnetic), Kigali, Rwanda (1.94°S, 30.09°E, geographic, 11.62°S, magnetic), and Kampala, Uganda (0.34°N, 32.60°E, geographic, 9.29°S, magnetic). For the period validated at Mt. Baker (approximately, 137.64 km, north west), Kigali (approximately, 162.42 km, south west), and Kampala (approximately, 237.61 km, north east) the percentages of the number of errors (difference between the observed and the modelled probability of occurrence of ionospheric irregularity) less than 0.05 are 97.3, 89.4, and 81.3, respectively.