Modeling the temperature of the polar mesopause region: Part I-Inter-annual and long-term variations generated by the stratospheric QBO

We present results from the Numerical Spectral Model (NSM), which focus on the temperature environment of the mesopause region where polar mesospheric clouds (PMC) form. The PMC occur in summer and are observed varying on time scales from months to years, and the NSM describes the dynamical processes that can generate the temperature variations involved. The NSM simulates the quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO), which dominates the zonal circulation of the lower stratosphere at equatorial latitudes. The modeled QBO extends into the upper mesosphere, due to gravity wave (GW) filtering, consistent with UARS zonal wind and TIMED temperature measurements. While the QBO zonal winds are confined to equatorial latitudes, the associated temperature variations extend to high latitudes. The meridional circulation redistributes the QBO energy-and the resulting temperature oscillations away from the equator produce inter-annual variations that can exceed 5 K in the polar mesopause region, with considerable differences between the two hemispheres. The NSM shows that the 30-month QBO produces a 5-year or semi-decadal (SD) oscillation, and stratospheric NCEP data provide observational evidence for that. This SD oscillation extends in the temperature to the upper mesosphere, where it could contribute to the long-term variations of the region.