Article ID | Journal | Published Year | Pages | File Type |
---|---|---|---|---|
1895922 | Physica D: Nonlinear Phenomena | 2012 | 11 Pages |
Abstract
⺠We discuss limitations due to model error on the value of probabilistic forecasts. ⺠We combine the task of selecting the initial distribution with density forecasting. ⺠We argue that the logarithmic scoring rule is best suited for the task. ⺠The approach results in longer time horizons over which forecasts are useful.
Related Topics
Physical Sciences and Engineering
Mathematics
Applied Mathematics
Authors
R.L. Machete, I.M. Moroz,