Article ID Journal Published Year Pages File Type
1895922 Physica D: Nonlinear Phenomena 2012 11 Pages PDF
Abstract
► We discuss limitations due to model error on the value of probabilistic forecasts. ► We combine the task of selecting the initial distribution with density forecasting. ► We argue that the logarithmic scoring rule is best suited for the task. ► The approach results in longer time horizons over which forecasts are useful.
Related Topics
Physical Sciences and Engineering Mathematics Applied Mathematics
Authors
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