Chaos game representation of the Dst index and prediction of geomagnetic storm events

This paper proposes a two-dimensional chaos game representation (CGR) for the Dst index. The CGR provides an effective method to characterize the multifractality of the Dst time series. The probability measure of this representation is then modeled as a recurrent iterated function system in fractal theory, which leads to an algorithm for prediction of a storm event. We present an analysis and modeling of the Dst time series over the period 1963-2003. The numerical results obtained indicate that the method is useful in predicting storm events one day ahead.