On evaluation of infection probabilities for different age groups

In this paper the problem of evaluating transmission probabilities for different age groups during an influenza epidemic/pandemic in a city will be considered. In order to solve this problem a regularization procedure based on illness attack rates for several age groups (cumulated numbers of infected residents as functions of time) is proposed and validated. It can be used for past epidemics to estimate the efficiency or inefficiency of undertaken interventions, to propose new ones and to reveal its advantages and shortcomings. Under some conditions it can be used to model the possible dynamics of a coming epidemic.