The changing incidence of human papillomavirus-associated oropharyngeal cancer using multiple imputation from 2000 to 2010 at a Comprehensive Cancer Centre

Introduction Human papillomavirus (HPV) is a risk and prognostic factor for oropharyngeal cancer (OPC). Determining whether the incidence of HPV-associated OPC is rising informs health policy. Methods HPV status was ascribed using p16 immunohistochemistry in 683/1474 OPC patients identified from the Princess Margaret Hospital's Cancer Registry (from 2000 to 2010). Missing p16 data was estimated using multiple (n = 100) imputation (MI) and validated using an independent OPC cohort (n = 214). Non-OPC head and neck squamous cell carcinoma (HNSCC) (n = 3262) were also used for time-trend comparison. Regression was used to compare HNSCC subsets and time-trends. The c-index was used to measure the predictive ability of MI. Results The incidence of OPC rose from 23.3% of all HNSCC in 2000 to 31.2% in 2010 (p = 0.002). In the subset of OPC tested for p16, there was no change in p16 positivity over time (p = 0.9). However, p16 testing became more frequent over time (p < 0.0001), but was nonetheless biased, favouring never-smokers [OR 1.87 (95% CI 1.29–2.70)] and tumors of the tonsil [OR 2.30 (1.52–3.47)] or base-of-tongue [OR 1.72 (1.10–2.70)]. These same factors were also associated with p16-positivity [ORs 3.22 (1.27–8.16), 7.26 (3.50–15.1), 5.83 (2.70–12.7), respectively]. Following MI and normalization, the proportion of OPC that was p16-associated rose from 39.8% in 2000 to 65.0% in 2010, p = 0.002, fully explaining the rise in OPC in our patient population. Conclusion The rise in HNSCC referrals seen from 2000 to 2010 at our institution was driven primarily by p16-associated OPC. MI was necessary to derive reliable conclusions when cases with missing data are considerable.