Incidence of bone metastases and survival after a diagnosis of bone metastases in breast cancer patients

•During the last few decades, the overall incidence of bone metastases after breast cancer has decreased.•Bone metastases remain a major source of morbidity in late stage breast cancer patients.•Incidence of bone metastases after breast cancer is higher in certain clinical subgroups.•Survival after bone metastases is higher in breast cancer patients with bone-only metastases.

Background: Bone is the most common metastatic site associated with breast cancer. Using a database of women with breast cancer treated at Guy's Hospital, London 1976–2006 and followed until end 2010, we determined incidence of and survival after bone metastases. Methods: We calculated cumulative incidence of bone metastases considering death without prior bone metastases as a competing risk. Risk of bone metastases was modelled through Cox-regression. Survival after bone metastases diagnosis was calculated using Kaplan–Meier methodology. Results: Of the 7064 women, 589 (22%) developed bone metastases during 8.4 years (mean). Incidence of bone metastases was significantly higher in younger women, tumour size >5 cm, higher tumour grade, lobular carcinoma and ≥four positive nodes, but was not affected by hormone receptor status. Median survival after bone metastases diagnosis was 2.3 years in women with bone-only metastases compared with <1 year in women with visceral and bone metastases. There was a trend for decreased survival for patients who developed visceral metastases early, and proportionately fewer patients in this group. Interpretation: Incidence of bone metastases has decreased but bone metastases remain a highly relevant clinical problem due to the large number of patients being diagnosed with breast cancer.