Survival and clinical metastases among prostate cancer patients treated with androgen deprivation therapy in Sweden

•We study prostate cancer patients treated with androgen deprivation therapy.•Cumulative incidences of metastases and castration resistance are estimated.•Overall survival and bone metastasis-free survival is estimated.•PSA characteristics are important risk determinants of metastasis and death.

ObjectivesTo examine the incidence of metastases and clinical course of prostate cancer patients who are without confirmed metastasis when initiating androgen deprivation therapy (ADT).MethodsRetrospective cohort study conducted using electronic medical records from Swedish outpatient urology clinics linked to national mandatory registries to capture medical and demographic data. Prostate cancer patients initiating ADT between 2000 and 2010 were followed from initiation of ADT to metastasis, death, and/or end of follow-up.ResultsThe 5-year cumulative incidence (CI) of metastasis was 18%. Survival was 60% after 5 years; results were similar for bone metastasis-free survival. The 5-year CI of castration-resistant prostate cancer (CRPC) was 50% and the median survival from CRPC development was 2.7 years. Serum prostate-specific antigen (PSA) levels and PSA doubling time were strong predictors of bone metastasis, any metastasis, and death.ConclusionThis study provides understanding of the clinical course of prostate cancer patients without confirmed metastasis treated with ADT in Sweden. Greater PSA values and shorter PSA doubling time (particularly ≤ 6 months) were associated with increased risk of bone metastasis, any metastasis, and death.