| Article ID | Journal | Published Year | Pages | File Type |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2120850 | EBioMedicine | 2016 | 11 Pages |
•Past and present assessments of VC indicate strong seasonal patterns in temperate climates' dengue epidemic potential.•Current VC intensity could permit summer dengue epidemics in Southern Europe driven by either Aedes vector, where present.•Extent of spatial and temporal VC changes depend on vector characteristics and projected greenhouse gas emissions scenarios.•With climate change, future VC intensifies: shifting northward and prolonging the season suitable for dengue epidemics.•By the 21st century's end, seasonal dengue outbreaks could emerge in much more of Europe if Aedes vectors were established.•Achieving the Paris Agreement's emission reduction commitments could decelerate the increasing threat of dengue to Europe.Globalization and climate change can increase the geographic spread of vector-borne diseases. Among those, dengue, a mosquito-transmitted viral disease, causes up to 390 million human infections annually. This study evaluates potential for dengue outbreaks in Europe based on climate conditions. Estimated suitability (1901–2099) for dengue outbreaks is expanding presently from Southern Europe northward and lengthening seasonally up to eight months around the summer; however, the projected extent, intensity and duration depend partially on greenhouse gas emissions. We conclude that limiting emissions thereby mitigating climate change could substantially reduce the likelihood of dengue transmission events in Europe during the 21st century.
Warming temperatures may increase the geographic spread of vector-borne diseases into temperate areas. Although a tropical mosquito-borne viral disease, a dengue outbreak occurred in Madeira, Portugal, in 2012; the first in Europe since 1920s. This outbreak emphasizes the potential for dengue re-emergence in Europe given changing climates. We present estimates of dengue epidemic potential using vectorial capacity (VC) based on historic and projected temperature (1901–2099). VC indicates the vectors' ability to spread disease among humans. We calculated temperature-dependent VC for Europe, highlighting 10 European cities and three non-European reference cities. Compared with the tropics, Europe shows pronounced seasonality and geographical heterogeneity. Although low, VC during summer is currently sufficient for dengue outbreaks in Southern Europe to commence–if sufficient vector populations (either Ae. aegypti and Ae. albopictus) were active and virus were introduced. Under various climate change scenarios, the seasonal peak and time window for dengue epidemic potential increases during the 21st century. Our study maps dengue epidemic potential in Europe and identifies seasonal time windows when major cities are most conducive for dengue transmission from 1901 to 2099. Our findings illustrate, that besides vector control, mitigating greenhouse gas emissions crucially reduces the future epidemic potential of dengue in Europe.
