Lung cancer mortality in France: Trend analysis and projection between 1975 and 2012, using a Bayesian age-period-cohort model

SummaryIntroductionLung cancer is currently the most common cancer in the world and as such is an important public health concern. One of the main challenges is to foresee the evolution of trends in lung cancer mortality rates in order to anticipate the future burden of this disease as well as to plan the supply of adequate health care.The aim of this study is to propose a quantification of future lung cancer mortality rates by gender in France until the year 2012.MethodsLung cancer mortality data in France (1978–2002) were extracted from the National Statistics of Death and analyzed by 5-year age-groups and periods, using a Bayesian age-period-cohort model.DiscussionBetween 1978 and 2002, female lung cancer mortality rate rises by 3.3% year−1. For men, a slow increase is observed until 1988–1992 followed by a declining trend. In 1998–2002, age-standardized mortality rates were, respectively, 45.5 and 7.6 per 100 000 for males and for females. By 2008–2012 these figures would reach 40.8 (95% credibility interval (CI): 32.7, 50.0) and 12.1 (CI: 11.7, 12.6) per 100 000, respectively, which represents among women a 4.7% annual increase (CI: 4.5, 5.0).ResultsOur results highlight the relevance of pursuing public health measures in order to cope more actively with tobacco smoking in the prevention strategy against lung cancer specifically among women.