Probabilistic assessment of shale gas production and water demand at Xiuwu Basin in China

•An integrated probabilistic framework for shale gas resource assessment is proposed.•Probabilistic analysis provides more reliable prediction of shale production.•Sensitivity analysis shows four most influential parameters to shale gas production.•Stress on regional water resources is not a concern.•Environmental issues need attention.

This study presents an integrated probabilistic framework by combining Monte Carlo Simulation with a gas transport model of a horizontal well with multi-fracturing stages to assess shale gas resources in the Wangyinpu Formation of the Xiuwu Basin, China. Modeling results suggest that the 30-year cumulative production of a single horizontal well is predicted at a likely value of 3.50 × 108 m3 with a maximum of 6.78 × 109 m3. Potential shale gas production from a “sweet spot” area is estimated at a range of 1.13 × 1010–1.76 × 1013 m3 with a likely value of 8.24 × 1011 m3. Sensitivity analysis indicates that the gas production rate and cumulative gas production of a single horizontal well are most sensitive to the relative volume occupied by kerogen in the bulk volume of the shale, gas desorption rate, number of fracturing stages, and permeability of the stimulated zone. Assessment of water demand for horizontal well drilling and hydraulic fracturing suggests that shale gas development at the Xiuwu Basin will not likely cause regional water-supply stress because of abundant water resources in the region. The probabilistic approach presented in this study can provide valuable information for planning shale gas development and can also be applied to other shale gas reservoirs.