Estimation model and benchmarks for heating energy consumption of schools and sport facilities in Germany

The provision of energy efficient real estate has become increasingly important from an ecological and economical perspective. Focusing on heating energy consumption of schools and sport facilities, this study introduces a standardized but flexible estimation model for the practice of real estate management. This allows significant parameters to be identified in order to accurately benchmark and forecast heating energy consumption. An explorative data analysis forms the basis of the investigation. In particular, the study examines the standard and condition of building characteristics, buildings’ utilization and location for a random sample of 105 properties within Stuttgart (Germany). Based on statistical pre-analysis and an evaluation of different linear and non-linear regression models, the most appropriate model to explain differences in final heating energy consumption is presented. The transferability of the introduced model is evaluated, conducting a validation test and performing a post-hoc power analysis to discuss the probability of inferences about examined population parameters. The investigation verifies that the presented model provides consistent, unbiased and efficient estimates and allows conclusive inferences beyond the underlying random sample. In addition, the different application fields of the presented model are described and the practical significance of delineate factors are demonstrated by various scenarios.

► Multivariate analysis on heating energy consumption estimates and benchmarks. ► Properties with indoor swimming pool have 84% higher heating consumption. ► Properties with low thermal mass have an 48% increase in heating consumption. ► Type of energy source is responsible for 34% differences in heating consumption. ► Validation tests verify inferences about examined population parameters.