A revised timeline for biological agents: Revisiting the early years of the germ theory of disease

SummaryAn agreed upon timeline for the initial, scientifically-informed use of biological agents typically begins with the Japanese Army in Manchuria and China prior to the generalized outbreak of World War II (1932 until 1945). The process included human experimentation with multiple biological agents followed by their release in combat (e.g. the plague bacillus) targeting military personnel and civilians. Two postulates are used support these dates. First, allegations of earlier bacteriological weapon experimentation and/or use represented the accidental, small scale, and sporadic dispersion of infectious agents preceding the Germ Theory of Disease. Therefore, attempts prior to the Twentieth Century were uninformed scientifically and are not considered representative. Later, as the Germ Theory was maturing, the hypothetical timeline was derived, in part retrospectively, from reputable historical sources (the Trillat Report and The League of Nations) published immediately upon the conclusion of World War I. These documents explicitly testified to the total absence of bacteriological weapons in any form (experimentation or battlefield application) directed at human subjects—in stark contrast to the utilization of chemical agents—during the course of that war. Therefore the Japanese Army in Manchuria became time zero. Recently, evidence previously hidden from outside study has surfaced demonstrating that a small group of Turkish physicians injected typhus-contaminated serum into Armenian civilians during WWI. Although controversy persists regarding primary intent—immunization, experimentation on human subjects, or the introduction of a crude biological weapon—the discovery might suggest a revision to the accepted timeline. The primitive efforts with contaminated serum that occurred during the First World War may seem trivial, especially when compared to overall fatalities during that conflict, but they did include the informed and fatal application of microbial agents. Furthermore, the actions may have influenced certain behaviors that followed in World War II.