A model to analyse the profitability of long-haul network development involving non-hub airports: The case of the Barcelona–Asian market

•We analyse the role of aircraft technology for hub-bypassing.•Two routes of the Barcelona–East Asian market are evaluated.•The Barcelona–Tokyo route is viable thanks to new aircraft technology.•The Barcelona–Beijing route can be a seasonal route with new aircraft technology.

Intercontinental direct flights are key for securing foreign investment and developing trade, however, traditional dog-bone airline networks exclude secondary airports from this type of traffic and contribute to uneven regional economic development. New aircraft technology and hub-bypassing strategies can allow non-hub secondary airports to connect to intercontinental destinations. By developing an Integrated Model for Forecasting New Routes we analyse two routes of the Barcelona–East Asian market and evaluate if new aircraft technology can be a game changer for European secondary airports. Results show that direct non-stop services from Barcelona to Tokyo could be viable with the Boeing 787-8, but not with the previous technology (i.e., Boeing 777). The Barcelona–Beijing route shows some demand limitations and would only allow for some seasonal services. The findings show important connectivity prospects for secondary European airports.