Probabilistic modeling of air void variability of asphalt mixtures in flexible pavements

•We present two methods to account for air void variability in HMA modeling.•Both methods are probabilistic, use finite element and simulation techniques.•One method considers the internal heterogeneity of air void distribution in HMA.•The heterogeneous case better quantifies the reliability of pavement structures.

This paper explores two methods for including air void variability in asphalt mixtures when analyzing the performance of flexible pavements. Both methods combine probabilistic theory, finite element modeling and simulation techniques. However, one approach considers the asphalt layer as a homogeneous material while the other captures the spatial variability of material properties within the layer. The main difference between both methods was observed in the dispersion of the mechanical response of the asphalt course. The results show that including the spatial variability of material properties is useful to obtain a better insight of the actual structural reliability of pavements.