Development of methodology for calibrated simulation in single-family residential buildings using three-parameter change-point regression model

•We developed a methodology for calibrated simulation in a single-family house.•Three-parameter change-point regression model was used in the methodology.•Sensitivity analysis was done using three-parameter change-point regression model.•The result of the sensitivity analysis was used for calibrated simulation.•The methodology was tested by case-study single-family houses.

This study developed a methodology for a calibrated simulation of single-family residential buildings using a three-parameter change-point regression model. This new method provides a reproducible systematic and consistent calibration procedure. The procedure consists of two parts: a sensitivity analysis that can analyze the characteristics of the building; and a calibration procedure that uses the results of the sensitivity analysis. In the first part, the characteristics of the case-study house were analyzed using a detailed sensitivity analysis with a three-parameter change-point regression model. In this procedure, the most to least influential parameters for each three-parameter coefficient for the house were identified. Next, the identified parameters for each three-parameter coefficient were adjusted to closely match the actual building energy use of the house. Using the procedure, the 36.9% global CV (RMSE) of the initial simulation was improved to 8.8% after calibrated simulation, which is within the accuracy criterion according to the ASHRAE Guideline 14-2014. This study was conducted using a case-study house in a hot and humid climate. However, the procedure developed should be useful for other climates as well. In addition, the results of calibrated simulation can help determining energy efficient measures that are appropriate for the house in the future.